An Islamic NATO? What Pak-Saudi-Türkiye defence pact means for India

Last September, Saudi Arabia and its long-time ally Pakistan signed a security agreement featuring a collective defence clause. Modelled on NATO’s Article 5, the pact pledges that an attack on one nation will be treated as an attack on both.The framework came against the backdrop of the September 9 Israeli strike targeting Hamas leaders in Qatar – an action that angered the Arab nations and prompted them to hold an emergency security meeting in Doha.Although the gathering failed to produce a unified outcome, discussions about stronger collective security mechanisms underscored a growing unease among Arab states about the reliability of the US as a long-term security guarantor.Four months later, Türkiye is now expected to join the the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA), initially signed by Islamabad and Riyadh, according to Bloomberg.A NATO member, Türkiye has increasingly pursued strategic autonomy and diversified security partnerships in view of Israel’s opposition to Ankara’s entry into the US F-35 fighter jet programme.Saudi and Pakistani officials earlier stressed that the agreement is defensive in nature and not aimed at any specific countries. Yet its timing was difficult to separate from broader regional dynamics.The pact sent a pointed signal to Israel, the only presumed nuclear power in West Asia, which has pursued an expansive military campaign across Iran, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Qatar, Syria, and Yemen since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023.India, too, is likely to follow these developments closely, especially as they unfold months after a brief but intense four-day military confrontation with Pakistan in May 2025. How this will workSaudi Arabia and Pakistan maintain deep-rooted economic, religious, and strategic ties, historically bolstered by Riyadh's reported financial support for Pakistan’s nuclear program. Of late, Türkiye has strengthened defence relations with both nations, setting the stage for a potential trilateral alliance.Such an arrangement would leverage the unique strengths of each member. Nihat Ali Ozcan, a strategist at the Ankara-based think tank TEPAV, told Bloomberg that Saudi Arabia brings financial clout, Pakistan has nuclear capability, ballistic missiles and manpower, while Turkiye has military experience and has developed a defence industry.Together, these assets could create a more formal and coordinated security bloc than the current bilateral Saudi-Pakistani relationship.Emphasising this alignment, Pakistan’s Defence Production Minister Raza Hayat Harraj told BBC Urdu: “From a strategic point of view, Turkiye, China, Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan are close friendly countries of Pakistan, and there is a close relationship with them in terms of strategic policy.”What this means for IndiaSoon after signing of the pact by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in September, India responded cautiously even as some analysts warned that the agreement could complicate South Asia’s balance of power and potentially draw Saudi Arabia into the volatile India-Pakistan dynamic.Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal had acknowledged the development but emphasised India’s core priorities. “We will study the implications of this development for our national security as well as for regional and global stability. The Government remains committed to protecting India’s national interests and ensuring comprehensive national security in all domains,” he stated.Observers suggest Pakistan, unnerved by India’s assertive new stance, had been seeking a formal security guarantee from its allies — culminating in the recent pact with Saudi Arabia.“Pakistan previously maintained mutual defence treaties with the US during the Cold War, but they crumbled by the ’70s. Even with China, despite extensive defence cooperation, Pakistan lacks a formal mutual defence pact,” Asfandyar Mir, senior fellow at the Washington DC-based Stimson Center, told Al Jazeera.He suggested that the new agreement with Riyadh could offer Islamabad an added layer of security: “At precisely the moment when Pakistan is faced with the threat of Indian military action, Pakistan has secured a strong collective defence agreement from Saudi Arabia. So, it introduces a lot of complexity to future India-Pakistan dynamics.”Riyadh, however, reassured New Delhi that the pact with Islamabad did not come at the expense of its growing ties with India. A senior Saudi official told Reuters, “Our relationship with India is more robust than it has ever been. We will continue to grow this relationship and seek to contribute to regional peace whichever way we can.”A Pak nuclear umbrella over Saudi?Pakistan’s defence minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif said that his nation’s nuclear programme “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia if needed under the new defence pact, the Associated Press reported on September 19 citing an interview aired by Geo TV.The prospect of a nuclear dimension to this alliance has long been speculated upon, especially given the historical ties between Riyadh and Islamabad in the realm of strategic defence. In his authoritative book Eating Grass: The Making of the Pakistani Bomb, retired Pakistani Brigadier Feroz Hassan Khan noted that Saudi Arabia provided “generous financial support” to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme.A 2007 US diplomatic cable published by WikiLeaks also reveals that Pakistani officials had floated the idea of Saudi Arabia developing a weapons programme in tandem with Pakistan.The cable reports: “According to these officials, they understand that [Saudi Arabia] does want to protect itself and the region, and since, in their opinion, some of the other regional players — specifically Egypt — are unable to develop such weapons systems due to financial constraints, it is logical for the Saudis to step in as the physical ‘protector’ just as they have been increasingly stepping in as peace mediators in various regional conflicts.”The latest developments come amid Saudi Arabia’s ongoing push for a domestic nuclear energy programme. Riyadh has previously sought American assistance to build a civilian nuclear infrastructure, with hopes of securing uranium enrichment rights — a key sticking point in proposed normalisation talks with Israel before the October 2023 Hamas-led attack derailed diplomatic progress.While the stated purpose is peaceful energy production, non-proliferation experts have raised alarms: enriching uranium domestically could potentially pave the way for weaponisation.Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been explicit about the kingdom’s strategic posture. He has said Saudi Arabia would seek to acquire nuclear weapons if Iran were to develop them.While Riyadh remains a signatory of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) and is not believed to be actively developing nuclear weapons, it is widely assumed to possess a domestic ballistic missile programme — a potential delivery system should it choose to pursue a nuclear arsenal.Notably, just before the Saudi-Pakistani agreement was finalised, Iran dispatched Ali Larijani — secretary of its Supreme National Security Council — to Riyadh. There was speculation that Saudi Arabia gave Tehran quiet reassurances regarding the pact. This would be consistent with the ongoing détente between the two regional powers, brokered by China in 2023.With inputs from agencies